A ground war in Iran would carry high costs with little strategic return. With oil flows vulnerable and escalation risks growing, the US faces limited options and no clear path to resolution.

A ground attack on Iran, including occupation of Kharg Island or areas along the coast, will not achieve results commensurate with the likely cost in terms of US lives and energy prices. (It also poses risks to the infrastructure and oil facilities of the Arab states that they find unacceptable – although that has been an incidental US and Israeli concern throughout the conflict.)

Cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian approval will remain sufficiently subject to attack or interdiction by Iran for those cargoes to be un-insurable. There is no military solution to that issue.

The Iranians are convinced they have a higher pain threshold than the United States. They have not lost........

© Pearls and Irritations