Iran’s attacks across the Gulf have exposed the limits of the US security umbrella and forced regional leaders to rethink how they balance relations with Washington, Tehran and their own populations.

When the US-Israeli war on Iran finally ends, the Middle East will be even less predictable than it was before it started.

The decision by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to go to war – and the Iranian response – may be a  watershed moment for the region. It is highly unlikely the Persian Gulf states will be prepared to pay a similar price again for the US to pursue its own interests.

When the war began, these countries quickly found that neither their alignment with the US security umbrella, nor their recent diplomatic engagement with Iran, prevented them from being targeted.

More than 1,700 Iranian missiles and drones have been fired at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) alone. Hundreds more have  fallen on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Where does the region go once the bombs stop dropping? Will the Gulf countries recalibrate their relations with the US, and if so, to what extent?

After the war ends, there is no reason to expect tensions between Washington and Tehran will subside to the point where the US can draw down its military assets in the Gulf.

Instead, the Iranian attacks have only underlined the importance to the Gulf states of having ready and reliable access to US defence systems.

Beyond the immediate need to protect their citizens, these countries need to assure energy........

© Pearls and Irritations