The Iran war began with the expectation that overwhelming American and Israeli firepower would bring Tehran to its knees within days. Instead, the conflict has entered its sixth month. While the United States and Israel continue to claim tactical victories, Iran appears to be winning strategically.

Political scientist Professor Robert Pape draws a clear distinction between tactical destruction and strategic success. He argues that Iran is winning because it retains decisive leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and has demonstrated its ability to threaten and disable American military installations throughout the region.

Pape’s most provocative assessment is that the war is transforming Iran into a potential “fourth center of global power,” alongside the United States, China and Russia. His argument rests not on the number of aircraft, ships or military bases Iran possesses, but on Tehran’s demonstrated ability to absorb massive attacks, preserve its political system, continue retaliating and deny a superpower the achievement of its declared objectives.

The underlying lesson is difficult to dismiss: a middle power has absorbed immense punishment while preventing the world’s most powerful military alliance from forcing it into submission. If Iran can withstand such pressure, the consequences for the credibility of American power become even more profound when one imagines a future confrontation with China, or with China and Russia acting together.

Ironically, as happened during an earlier phase when the United States reportedly faced shortages of critical weapons and ammunition, Washington has once again paused its attacks. Critics and analysts believe that this pause may not represent a genuine change of policy, but an attempt to gain time, replenish depleted stocks, complete military preparations and prepare for another escalation.

Iran, meanwhile, has made the United States largely irrelevant to the discussions currently taking place between Tehran and Muscat. Iran has characterized these negotiations as bilateral talks with Oman concerning a mechanism for managing maritime passage through the........

© Pakistan Observer