The crash of an Indian Air Force HAL Tejas light combat aircraft during a demonstration at the Dubai Airshow on 21 November is undoubtedly a profound tragedy — not least for the family of the pilot, Wing Commander Namansh Syal, who lost his life. But it is essential to parse this event with technical clarity, context and a long view, rather than panic or simplistic judgement. While the public reaction has rightly been emotional, the incident should not be treated as an existential crisis for India’s indigenous Tejas programme.

The aircraft crashed mid-flight at Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai, in front of spectators. Reports and videos showed a steep loss of control, a fireball and thick black smoke. The IAF has confirmed that Wing Commander Syal died in the crash, and a court of inquiry has been ordered. According to expert analysis, the jet was executing a negative-G turn immediately before the crash — a manoeuvre that imposes significant aerodynamic and physiological stress.

Earlier claims, circulating on social media, of an “oil leak" ahead of the crash have been strongly refuted by the Press Information Bureau (PIB). The fluid in question was likely “condensed water" being drained from standard systems under humid conditions. HAL has described the incident as an “isolated occurrence".

This is only the second known crash in the Tejas programme. The first occurred in March 2024, near Jaisalmer, when a Tejas Mk-1 crashed, but the pilot ejected safely.

Tejas has logged thousands of accident-free sorties over its service life, contributing to a strong operational safety record.

Analysing the crash from an engineering and aerodynamic standpoint, several plausible hypotheses emerge — none of which necessarily indict the Tejas programme as fundamentally flawed.

The first possibility is of a “high-alpha" risk, which is jargon for a low-altitude stall risk. The eyewitness and video accounts suggest a high-angle-of-attack (alpha) attitude followed by an abrupt loss of altitude. In a delta-wing aircraft like the Tejas, aggressive manoeuvres at low altitude leave very little margin for recovery, especially if the aircraft transitions into a stall or departs controlled flight.

The second technical theory is one involving a “negative-G manoeuvre stress". Negative-G turns are........

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