History shows that disruptive changes in the trajectory of nations and organisations usually follow a major crisis. Looking back, the 1991 economic reforms were an outcome of the Balance of Payments calamity that led to the Reserve Bank of India pledging its gold reserves with foreign banks. The liberalisation that followed was undertaken under duress as part of commitments to international financial institutions. Some believe the choice of a career economist as Finance Minister was made at the instance of the World Bank. As per folklore, Manmohan Singh got the job after I.G. Patel, who was the first choice, declined. Call it the stars or destiny — the rest, as they say, is history.

A proverbial hornet’s nest was stirred over the weekend by a statement from the United States Secretary of Commerce in the Trump administration, Howard Lutnick. In the course of a podcast interview, Lutnick commented that the trade treaty between the United States (US) and India was ready to be inked but fell through as Prime Minister Narendra Modi refused to call US President Donald Trump. This set the cat among the pigeons, with critics of PM Modi predictably accusing him of poor political judgement for missing the moment.

The reality, however, is far more complex. A trade treaty is not about agreeing on a single flat rate of tariff. It has several layers and fine print. One has to dot the i’s and cross the t’s before putting pen to paper. Thus, some analysts and commentators who were quick to say that PM Modi should have moved faster revised their positions on second thoughts, advocating instead........

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