As this extraordinary year grinds to a close, the overall picture is coming into view. 2025 is “virtually certain” to end in a tie as the second hottest year on record. 

The last three years have been exceptionally hot, spiking well above the trajectory of global heating over the past few decades. Last year will retain its crown as the hottest year on record so far, while 2025 will probably end up below 1.5 C by a whisker. Overall, the three-year average will exceed 1.5 C of heating for the first time, according to the scientists at Copernicus, Europe’s Earth monitoring programme.

“For November, global temperatures were 1.54 C above preindustrial levels,” said Dr. Samantha Burgess, deputy director at the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “And the three-year average for 2023-2025 is on track to exceed 1.5 C for the first time. These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change.” 

You can get a sense of the departure from old fashioned global warming that began around June of 2023 and continues through today from Copernicus’ chart, below. The initial surge was partly boosted by El Niño conditions but 2025 has been in a cooler neutral or La Niña state.

It may be unfashionable to worry about climate change and its seemingly small numbers these days, but they lead to much larger numbers. Much, much larger ones. Our little rock hasn’t been this hot in at least 125,000 years — far outside the “Goldilocks zone” in which human civilization developed.

And it’s been so long since there was this much carbon in the sky that we’re not really sure how far back to look. The World Meteorological Organization is relatively restrained — it 

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