The announcement of a ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran in April 2026 was widely framed as a moment of de-escalation in one of the most dangerous confrontations in the Middle East in recent years. Yet, a closer examination suggests something far less reassuring. The war may have slowed, but it has not ended. What has emerged is not peace, but a pause—fragile, conditional, and deeply uncertain.

This ceasefire did not arise from a shared strategic vision or a genuine convergence of interests. Instead, it reflects a mutual recognition of risk. The prospect of a wider regional war—one that could disrupt critical global energy routes such as the Strait of Hormuz—created incentives for restraint. However, restraint is not resolution. Agreements forged under pressure tend to stabilise situations temporarily, but they do not address the underlying drivers of conflict.

From the outset, ambiguity has been a defining feature of this ceasefire. There is no single, universally accepted understanding of its scope. What constitutes a “cessation” of hostilities? Does it apply uniformly across theatres, including Lebanon? What forms of military activity are still permissible? These questions remain unresolved.

From the outset, ambiguity has been a defining feature of this ceasefire. There is no single, universally accepted understanding of its scope. What constitutes a “cessation” of hostilities? Does it apply uniformly across theatres, including Lebanon? What forms of military activity are still permissible? These questions remain unresolved.

On the ground, military actions have not ceased entirely; they have merely shifted in scale, intensity and justification. At the political level, each actor advances its own narrative of success.

This ambiguity is not accidental. It serves a strategic function. For Washington, it allows the ceasefire to........

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