Two by-election defeats prove beyond doubt that Reform UK is a problem for the Conservative Party, but not the problem – that would be Labour, the party that will return to Parliament next week with two new MPs.

The issue now for the Conservatives is that tacking one way to try and shut down the threat to their right risks losing even more voters to the much more potent threat to their left.

Richard Tice, the leader of Reform UK, and his colleagues (Reform has no “members”) can be pleased with Thursday’s performance. The party secured a double-digit share of the vote in both Wellingborough and Kingswood, the first evidence we have seen that it can turn its notional national polling into results on the ground outside the extremely favourable conditions of a European Parliament election.

Yet by-elections are also good hunting grounds for minor parties: they can concentrate scarce resources in a handful of contests,........

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