The rapidly deteriorating diplomatic row between Japan and China over a potential “Taiwan contingency” is an important precursor of how China may react to countries and leaders that express opinions deemed unfavourable by Beijing in the years to come.

As China’s power grows, along with its ambitions regarding Taiwan, Beijing is increasingly intolerant of regional powers that openly support Taiwan. This growing assertiveness coincides with diminishing confidence in American security assistance for Taiwan, creating a sense of insecurity among China’s neighbours. As China rapidly establishes its position on the world stage, the implications of the Tokyo-Beijing diplomatic row could have implications far beyond Japan, potentially ensuring many countries self-censor themselves when it comes to the Taiwan question.

Here’s what happened. The standoff between Tokyo and Beijing started on November 7, when Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s newly elected and hawkish Prime Minister (also its first woman PM), addressed Japan’s parliament. She stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be classified as a “survival-threatening situation”, which, under Japanese law, could potentially trigger a military response from Tokyo. She explained that a Chinese blockade or seizure of Taiwan, located close to Japan and crucial for its shipping routes, could qualify as such a threat. The statement did not seem to be an official policy declaration from Japan; rather, it was a two-sentence........

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