Opinion polls show that the rise of Reform has driven support for independence into the majority position in Scotland. It’s a case of blowback, our Writer at Large argues.

It's called blowback. You carry out an action to achieve an aim – let’s call it Action X. As a result of Action X, consequences flow which damage you – let’s call that Consequence Y.

Historically, the best known case of blowback came from the CIA arming the Afghan mujahideen against Soviet invaders.

The operation certainly harmed the Soviets, but it also fuelled the Taliban and Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network. The ultimate blowback was the attack on America on September 11.

In its own small way, the Reform Party is setting the scene for its moment of blowback. Action X is its attempt to take seats at Holyrood and displace Labour and the Tories as the main opposition voice to the SNP.

Reform is doing a decent job of accomplishing Action X. However, Nigel Farage clearly hasn’t considered that Consequence Y is already firmly in train: a rise in support for independence, as a result of the boost to Reform, to such an extent that a vote for Yes has now become the majority position in Scotland, rather than a vote for No.

Let’s look at Action X first. The state of the parties in Scotland seems to show that the ‘new normal’ has the SNP........

© Herald Scotland