Middle East and North Africa

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. It’s been a big week in the world—there’s a new war in the Middle East that’s rapidly impacted the entire region and beyond.

On that note, we’ve got a lot of news for you today. Here’s what’s on tap: Trump’s shifting goals in the Iran war, Kristi Noem’s ouster as Homeland Security chief, and a new U.S. military operation in the Western Hemisphere.

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. It’s been a big week in the world—there’s a new war in the Middle East that’s rapidly impacted the entire region and beyond.

On that note, we’ve got a lot of news for you today. Here’s what’s on tap: Trump’s shifting goals in the Iran war, Kristi Noem’s ouster as Homeland Security chief, and a new U.S. military operation in the Western Hemisphere.

Operation Epic Confusion

The Iran war is less than a week old, but the Trump administration’s stated objectives in the fight have shifted repeatedly—as have its justifications for launching the conflict (read more on the latter from John here).

In many ways, the administration’s messaging on the war, nicknamed Operation Epic Fury, was muddled before it even began. U.S. President Donald Trump initially threatened strikes on Iran in January over the regime’s bloody crackdown on anti-government protests, but then he started warning Tehran that an attack could come if it didn’t reach an agreement with Washington on the Iranian nuclear program.

Since the United States and Israel began dropping bombs on Saturday, Trump and his advisors have added objectives beyond preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb. In the process, they’ve often contradicted one another on what the United States is trying to accomplish. Unsurprisingly, a recent CBS News poll suggests that Americans are confused about the war’s aims, with a majority (62 percent) stating that the administration has not yet explained its goals clearly.

Regime change? The Trump administration has fluctuated on whether one of the goals is to bring down the Iranian regime. The war has already seen a number of top Iranian leaders killed, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran is now in the process of selecting a new leader, and Trump has signaled that he expects to have a say. He’s also expressed support for a popular uprising and for opposition groups to take the fight to the regime.

“To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said in a video announcing the war on Saturday. “When we are finished, take over your government.”

But in a press briefing on Monday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted that this is “not a so-called regime change war.” Yet Trump continues to make statements that undermine this. On Thursday, the president told Reuters that the United States must be “involved in the process of choosing the person who is going ​to lead Iran into the future.” Trump also said that he would be “all for it” if Iranian Kurdish militias were to take the fight to the regime. Asked by Reuters if the United States would provide or had offered such forces with air cover, Trump said, “I can’t tell you that,” but he added that ‌the objective ⁠for the Kurds would be “to win.”

It’s an indeterminate approach to regime change, with the president apparently open to a range of outcomes—as long as they are........

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