The European Union today faces a set of external challenges that threaten its very existence. In December 2025, Pentagon officials told European diplomats that the continent must assume leadership of NATO by 2027, suggesting that the transatlantic alliance may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, Washington’s decision to go to war with Iran, made without serious consultation with its European allies, has produced a global energy crisis and raised further doubts about U.S. reliability. And growing Russian military aggression and Chinese commercial and technological pressure pose serious economic and security problems for Europe.

Europe simultaneously faces an acute danger from within. Economic insecurity and immigration are fueling a populist nationalism that could debilitate, if not dismantle, the project of European integration. Far-right parties are gaining ground across the continent and are seeking to return power from Brussels to national capitals. Populist forces are undermining the EU’s collective will, which is making it even more difficult for Europeans to assume responsibility for their own security.

Europeans have only one option for responding effectively to these dual threats: they must complete the project of European integration. The way forward is to connect the reform proposals of Mario Draghi, the former Italian prime minister and former president of the European Central Bank, with German leadership. Draghi argues for accelerating integration by crafting a common EU policy on artificial intelligence, defense, and energy. Germany is the only country with the political strength to push the bloc in such a direction, and its leaders understand the urgency of the moment: at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged the unraveling of the international order and highlighted the importance of increasing EU unity and competitiveness in response.

A German-led reform effort could give the EU the supranational character it needs to move toward strategic autonomy and act as a single player on the global stage. Deepening integration would also generate the economic rebound needed to counter the rising tide of illiberal populism. Draghi argues that Europe needs to make a qualitative leap in integration to the point where the continent can “act more and more as if [it] were one state.” Germany must seize the moment and take the lead in helping European countries come together to make that leap.

The efforts of China, Russia, and the United States to subvert the international security order are creating a level of global uncertainty and turmoil that is marginalizing the European Union and exposing it to unprecedented risks. U.S. President Donald Trump is the primary source of this upheaval. His threats to seize Greenland shocked not just Denmark but also all of Europe, and his tariffs have disrupted global trade. Trump’s decision to attack Iran has led to a region-wide conflagration and a spike in energy prices. And Washington’s support for Europe’s far right is confounding governments working to defend the center against the ideological extremes. European leaders and citizens increasingly feel that Trump sees allies as burdens, or even adversaries.

Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is perhaps the most potent threat to transatlantic trust and solidarity. European countries have concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine because he wants to remake the post–Cold War security order in a way that strengthens Russia and weakens the EU. Russia’s military and cyber-sabotage campaigns have reinforced that perception. Russian aircraft, missiles, and drones have penetrated EU airspace and disrupted operations at major airports, including those in Munich and Copenhagen. Trump’s friendly overtures to Moscow and dismissive attitude toward Kyiv have generated disappointment and estrangement in Europe.

Russia is also drawing closer to China, which suggests to many in Europe that Moscow and Beijing increasingly represent a single strategic challenge. In 2024, Chinese troops trained for special operations exercises in Belarus, bringing China’s threat closer to the continent. And Beijing has indirectly supported Putin’s war in Ukraine. In the eyes of many in Europe, Trump is aligning with Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in seeking to dismantle the liberal international order—a sharp departure from his predecessor, U.S. President Joe Biden, who teamed up with Europe to........

© Foreign Affairs