Gaza has reached a new equilibrium. Unsurprisingly, it is an ugly one. The good news is that the intense fighting is over and humanitarian relief is steadily entering the strip. Since the cease-fire began on October 10, Israel has released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, and Hamas has returned all living hostages as well as most of the bodies of those killed, in keeping with the Trump administration’s 20-point peace plan. Israel has reopened the Kerem Shalom, Kissufim, and Zikim border crossings and promised to allow 600 trucks per day into Gaza, carrying both aid and commercial goods for sale, which it has begun. The Israel Defense Forces has also withdrawn to a “yellow line” that limits its presence to around 53 percent of the strip, although several of the specific boundaries are disputed.

Plans for a more extensive resolution, however, are stalled, and the relations between Hamas and Israel today are characterized by limited but persistent conflict, not progress toward peace. Israel’s policies, Hamas’s refusal to lose more power, and the Trump administration’s poor attention span are likely to foil the peace proposal’s more ambitious plans for Gaza’s rehabilitation. Fundamentally, further progress depends on the creation of an International Stabilization Force to police Gaza, disarm Hamas, and eventually train a new, vetted, non-Hamas Palestinian police force that would assume control over Gaza. The IDF would then withdraw to 40 percent of the strip and eventually to 15 percent, as local security conditions improved. At the same time, a technocratic and apolitical Palestinian government would emerge to govern Gaza, reporting to what U.S. President Donald Trump has called a “Board of Peace,” which would be officially headed by Trump and run on a day-to-day basis by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, is supposed to undertake major reforms while preparing to eventually take on a major role in governing the strip.

The United States is making some efforts to move the ball forward. The U.S. military has created a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Israel to monitor the cease-fire and disbursement of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Senior U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and senior adviser (and Trump’s son-in-law) Jared Kushner, have visited Israel in recent weeks to demonstrate the U.S. commitment to the cease-fire agreement. But the vagueness surrounding statements and plans for important next steps to improve security; the Trump administration’s reluctance to take a bigger, more direct role in Gaza’s reconstruction; and the hesitation from potential partners to offer greater support to such efforts all make it less likely that the more aspirational parts of the Trump plan—namely, disarming Hamas and creating a new Palestinian government in Gaza—will be implemented soon, if ever.

Meanwhile, violence persists, leading to the deaths of a number of IDF soldiers and an even larger number of Palestinians, both fighters and civilians. Reports of cease-fire violations are difficult to verify, but the Government Media Office in Gaza, which Hamas controls, claims that Israel has violated the cease-fire agreement at least 282 times; the IDF, for its part, claims that........

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