William Watson: Don't blame Canada for the U.S. trade deficit
It's not that big a deal. Plus we account for only seven per cent of it — five per cent if you add in services trade, as you should
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At Friday’s evening’s Mar-a-Lago dinner, when he wasn’t joshing about Canada becoming the 51st state, Donald Trump was nagging Justin Trudeau over Canada’s trade surplus with the United States. For Trump the overall U.S. trade deficit has been a concern since at least the 1980s.
Trouble is, much of Trump’s economic policy is more or less guaranteed to produce a trade deficit. He obviously wants a strong economy, all presidents do. (Joe Biden thought he had one but nobody believed him.) Trump also likely regards a strong dollar as confirmation of America’s economic greatness, even if it hurts U.S. exporters, and his aggressive tariffs will juice the dollar whether he likes it or not. Finally, he favours strongly pro-investment taxes and regulation. He doesn’t necessarily favour foreign investment into the U.S., but if he makes the U.S. a highly hospitable place for investment, where will the world want to put its extra cash?
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That set of policy goals is not consistent with running trade surpluses. If you’ve got a strong economy,........
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