The strategic environment in Indonesia today is increasingly complex, with the issue of great power rivalry and the breakdown of the multilateralism norm. The issue of economic coercion has become part and parcel of statecraft. The post-Suharto re-interpretation of bebas-aktif must be able to respond to the world that is filled with pressure, competition, and selectivity of the great powers. ASEAN, as the focus of Indonesia’s foreign policy, is in disarray. Indonesia can no longer afford to be ambiguous in its strategic choice; a lack of national resilience is detrimental to our interests. It is time for Indonesia to have a confident foreign policy.

The world is more interconnected than ever, but less secure. The rivalry between the United States and China is growing in new areas, including trade, technology, defence, and values, which are increasingly shaping Asian countries’ political choices. The latest round of bloodlust in the Middle East threatens oil supplies and shipping lanes once again. The crisis in Ukraine continues to undermine security in Europe, and by cutting off grain shipments to some of the world’s most vulnerable populations, it has halted that crucial flow. Simultaneously, an arc of escalation is unfolding across the South China Sea, from Taiwan in the north to the Maldives in the south, as actions by mainland Chinese, Chinese naval assets, and paramilitary marine organisations continue to prompt alarm and anger throughout the region. Power appears to be shifting in volatile directions. Old alliances are crumbling, and systems of governance are in disarray. As Asia’s major archipelago – dependent for everything from markets to oil supplies on its sea lanes – the coming crisis promises to be no minor one.

“Debat Bebas-Aktif” provides a witty glimpse of 1950s Indonesia and its struggling independence, but in the decades since the Cold War ended, and even bigger powers than Indonesia demand their rights. In today’s transactional diplomacy, it is trade, finance, technology transfer and access to markets that are used to pry open governments and foreign investment officialdom. The days when foreign ministers grandly declared Indonesia’s position between East and West and trumpeted the country’s policy of non-alignment are long gone. In a climate that is fast losing touch with the politics of power and control, it is time for new definitions of the word bebas. It is time for photography practitioners to be actively and intentionally involved in the practice of this medium.

Indonesia already has several mountains to climb in terms of issues affecting the economy. The recent efforts of the US and other developed economies to spread their supply chains out from China pose a significant threat to Indonesia’s industrialisation and exports. However, there may also be opportunities for greater Chinese investment in Indonesia’s infrastructure, industry and economic growth. The challenges to sovereignty on the high seas, such as recent hostilities in the South China Sea off the coast of Natuna and the unfolding drama in the Middle East, are also sure to impact shipping costs and inflation and could put pressure on the government to boost spending in the budget. Economic, security, and external perspectives on ASEAN have created internal divisions within the organisation that are increasingly eroding the commonality that had been driving Indonesia’s regional leadership.

Indonesia faces a series of unpalatable choices as the great powers vie for positions in a global struggle and vie for Indonesia as a junior ally. Maintaining strict neutrality is no longer sufficient to guarantee Indonesia’s position as a major player in regional affairs. At the same time, embracing one side or the other would invite reprisal from the other side and serve only to undermine the country’s independent stance. An increasingly activist ASEAN would be a welcome development, yet the organisation’s entrenched institutional and interest-based biases make genuine cooperation amongst its members unlikely. Thus, Indonesia must tackle the foreign policy issues that affect its most critical national interests in a pragmatic, disciplined and hard-headed manner.

Global politics are in a turbulent state, but Indonesia actually gets opportunities out of the situation. In the midst of a great power competition, Indonesia cannot afford to compromise its strategic autonomy and allow itself to be a mere vassal of the great powers. To reap more benefits of trade, investment, technology transfer and capacity building, Bebas-aktif requires Indonesia to forge balanced engagement with the major powers and partnerships with middle powers like Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and the European Union. All these culminate in strategic resilience, which starts from within. Indonesia needs an energy transition, food security, a modernised defence system and digital sovereignty.

The end of the relatively loose international order offers Indonesia an opportunity to move beyond a neutral stance and adopt an assertive, adaptable and interest-driven foreign policy. This shift would allow Indonesia to defend its sovereignty and resilience, while at the same time raising its profile as a major player in the region and enhancing national interests, confidence and strategic space.

Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian diplomat. His views are his own.

Myers, L. (2025). Indonesia’s foreign policy under Prabowo: Still free but more active? The Diplomat. 

Martinus, M. (2025). Indonesia’s probable foreign policy shift from the West under a Prabowo administration. ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. 

Putra, B. A. (2025). Prabowo and the shifts in Indonesia’s contemporary foreign policy. Taylor & Francis (Cogent Social Sciences)

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