When the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting descends on Cebu in May 2026, it will come at a time when there are pressing matters that need to be addressed and the corresponding leaders who can provide the right solutions for the said issues. At the time of writing, Indonesia has been chosen as the next Secretary-General of ASEAN, whose position will undoubtedly highlight Indonesia’s relevance in the regional organisation.

As superpower rivalries intensify and as conflicts in the region and across the world escalate, and as issues such as economic inequality and economic instability plague the region, ASEAN is facing its most critical challenges since its founding. How will the organisation manage to remain relevant in the face of such issues? This essay argues that Indonesia plays a significant role in ASEAN’s ability to navigate through these challenges and maintain strategic autonomy, given that the organisation’s largest member state is also in charge of setting the organisation’s strategic direction, navigating through various conflicts that are happening within and outside the region, and projecting influence well beyond the region’s borders.

As the largest democracy, most populous country, and strongest economy in ASEAN, Indonesia has for decades naturally wielded considerable influence across the region due to a combination of compulsory and persuasive elements. A leading mediating power, Indonesia often brings others together to drive policy and steer the region away from conflict, and this mediating function will once again be called upon at the upcoming ASEAN summit in Cebu. As the first such gathering in two years, Cebu will present challenges for Indonesian leaders, who will be expected to consolidate ASEAN’s position in the face of simultaneous and intense pressures coming from abroad and from within the association itself.

The South China Sea issue remains ASEAN’s most pressing external security concern, though it is increasingly complexified by other global geopolitical rivalries and great power moves in the region, even as it threatens to marginalise ASEAN in its own backyard. Indonesia, as a non-claimant country committed to respecting international law, has staked out a role as a neutral broker seeking to promote self-restraint and negotiated solutions. However, despite some progress, a substantive Code of Conduct remains elusive owing to differing positions within ASEAN. Indonesia must therefore continue and indeed revitalise its leadership in resuming and reinvigorating fresh rounds of Code of Conduct negotiations, as well as press for early implementation of key confidence-building measures.

The situation in Myanmar also remains a pressing matter for ASEAN, which will face its most significant internal conflict to date. Indonesia’s experience in democracy and its past involvement in various peace-making efforts can be invaluable in addressing the Myanmar crisis. The Five-Point Consensus remains the main framework to address the situation in Myanmar, but its implementation has so far been uneven. Indonesia can play a key role in reorienting ASEAN’s stance on the issue by revitalising the role of the ASEAN Special Envoy, recalibrating expectations for the Consensus’s implementation milestones, and re-engaging in humanitarian efforts without inadvertently legitimising violence.

ASEAN’s ineffective handling of the Myanmar situation will also send a message that the organisation’s values do not matter in its operations, as the community is currently confronted with its most pressing internal affairs. Failing to address the conflict in Myanmar could make a habit of inaction a new status quo for the regional organisation.

In addition to the conflict in Ukraine, ASEAN is also dealing with the structural challenges to energy and food security that are pervasive in the region. These challenges have been highlighted by recent global supply disruptions and climate-related shocks that are increasingly interconnected and interdependent. As the world’s fourth-largest energy user, third-largest energy exporter, and fourth-largest wheat consumer, Indonesia is particularly well-placed to play a leading role in strengthening ASEAN’s economic relevance in addressing today’s global challenges. Building strategic energy reserves, developing food price stabilisation mechanisms, and encouraging the adoption of biofuels are examples of potential steps Indonesia could take to foster regional economic resilience.

While the economic value of the region is growing, there are concerns that ASEAN lacks sufficient agency in global governance. Because many ASEAN member states have differently perceived development experiences and, as a result, articulate development strategies in an ad-hoc and inconsistent manner, ASEAN is unable to effectively assert itself. As the largest economy in ASEAN and the only G20 member, Indonesia plays a unique role on the global stage and must use its influential position to coordinate an informed ASEAN perspective on issues of global development finance, debt restructuring, and climate funding.

Addressing those complexities requires political solutions. Indonesia must lead strategically, inclusively and consistently to strengthen the institutional capacity of ASEAN and support the ASEAN Secretariat. The summits’ declarations need to be translated consistently into concrete actions and follow-ups. This is so that the public gets to know and understand the dynamics and relevance of ASEAN. The foreign minister should also have a clear and articulate perspective of ASEAN as a strategically autonomous entity that stands for stability, rule of law and cooperation – autonomous from major powers.

As the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting in Cebu is happening in a few days, Indonesia has a great opportunity to affirm and prove its role and function as the backbone and heart of ASEAN. By focusing and leading efforts on the South China Sea, refocusing and maximising Indonesia’s connectivity investment on Myanmar, consolidating its position on critical national and regional interests such as enhancing energy and food security, and making ASEAN’s relevance felt globally through strengthening ties with its strategic counterparts, including the USA and India, Indonesia can play an important and pragmatic role. Ultimately, Indonesia’s success in mobilising all aspects of the country’s strength and resources will determine ASEAN’s emergence as a relevant strategic community amidst all the fragmentation and fragmentation around the world, or retreat to marginality.                                                                                                      

Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry official. The opinion expressed in this essay is his own.

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Tung, N. C. (2025). Built on sand, not steel: Colonial legacies and ASEAN’s struggles for integration. The Journal of Northeast Asian History, 21(2), 85–116. https://doi.org/10.23037/jnah.2025.21.2.004

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