The United States and China maintain a competitive relationship which transforms the Indo-Pacific region through strategic changes that affect Southeast Asian countries. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stands at the centre of this geopolitical competition because it needs to choose between two powers to avoid becoming irrelevant.

ASEAN will achieve lasting value through its success in protecting its independence from outside control. The research shows ASEAN can defend its strategic freedom from U.S.-China competition through domestic unity growth and collective diplomatic action, which prevents the region from fragmenting. The organisation will observe passively when ASEAN member states fail to unite because upcoming rivalries will create new regional structures.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces an essential decision point currently. The United States has expanded its Southeast Asian influence through military alliances and freedom of navigation operations, and economic programs, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. China maintains strong economic ties with ASEAN through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership while expanding its military presence across the South China Sea. The two global powers actively compete for influence in Southeast Asia, which creates difficulties for ASEAN member states. The organisation faces a threat because member states follow different national interests, which could cause them to support one power heavily, thus weakening ASEAN’s unified position. The organisation needs to defend itself against external threats while maintaining its ability to self-govern and preserving its long-term value.

The upcoming period will bring multiple obstacles to overcome. The South China Sea continues to serve as a dangerous military hotspot........

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