The election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States in 2016 brought about significant changes in American foreign policy, particularly concerning its approach towards the Asia-Pacific region. Trump’s “America First” policy and subsequent withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) introduced uncertainties and reshaped the dynamics of US engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). With the possibility of a second Trump presidency, it is important to examine its potential impact on ASEAN in the context of US-China rivalries and Japan’s strategic role. This essay explores these dynamics, highlighting economic, military, and geopolitical implications while providing recommendations for ASEAN to navigate these complexities.

Under Trump’s “America First” policy, the prioritization of US interests is expected to continue during a second term. This entails renegotiating trade agreements and reducing commitments to multilateralism, potentially leading to a more transactional and unpredictable US foreign policy. For ASEAN, this necessitates adjusting to a less engaged and more self-interested United States, which in turn calls for greater regional self-reliance and diversification of partnership.

Trump’s trade policies have had a significant impact on ASEAN economies. The withdrawal from the TPP and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods disrupted global supply chains, thus affecting export-oriented economies in ASEAN. In a second term, the US may pursue more bilateral trade agreements, with a focus on securing favourable terms for American businesses. This could potentially lead to decreased US........

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