With the outbreak of Israel’s Gaza war six months ago, a narrative mushroomed in the morass of the low, soft marshy land of geopolitics that the United States is caught in a quagmire that would compel its retrenchment in Eurasia and severely weaken the Biden administration’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific.

To what extent Moscow and Beijing subscribed to that narrative is debatable, given their scepticism drawn from past experience with the US foreign policy strategies. Be that as it may, what emerges is that NATO’s eastward expansion, the end of western hegemony in the Middle East and the US’ containment strategy against China are inter-related. The Biden Administration’s challenge is to adapt to a new normal.

Of course, there are variables in the situation — principally, the uncertainties in the future of US engagement. Within the US, there are radically different visions of the country’s role in the world and its relationships with allies. Abroad, there are concerns about American isolationism and reliability regardless of which candidate wins the elections in November.

In the past week alone, although the tensions in Middle East were spiking dangerously, that didn’t deter US President Joe Biden from hosting a truly historic state visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The subtext, predictably, was the tensions in Taiwan Straits. The US and Japan signed over 70 defence agreements and there is much talk about the letter’s induction into AUKUS and the Five Eyes. (here and here) Biden and Kishida also took part in a first-ever Trilateral Leaders Summit with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines, where the focus was on containment of China.(here and here)

Again, Washington announced sanctions against the import of Russian-origin aluminium, copper, and nickel and coordinated with the UK to crack down on the trade of these metals on global exchanges with a view “to target the revenue Russia can earn” to fund its military operation in Ukraine.........

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