By Sir Michael Leigh

(EurActiv) — EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova are due to start this spring. Bosnia and Herzegovina has edged forward in the queue, and Georgia’s not far behind. There’s talk of Montenegro joining the EU by 2030.

The EU has re-launched the enlargement process in record time because of the precarious geopolitical situation in Europe. This is meant primarily to express solidarity with Ukraine after Russia’s invasion and signal to Vladimir Putin that Brussels rejects any notion that Ukraine, its neighbours or the Balkans form part of a Russian sphere of influence.

The EU’s offer of eventual membership to Kyiv is intended to bolster the security of both Ukraine and the EU. Yet the true implications of Ukraine’s potential membership for European security have been largely ignored.

Security would not be enhanced by admitting a country partly occupied by a hostile foreign power. On the contrary, Ukraine’s vulnerability would become the EU’s vulnerability if it joined without concluding a peace treaty with Russia and without obtaining NATO guarantees.

The EU could stipulate that a peace treaty is a precondition for membership, but this would be handing a veto to Vladimir Putin. A peace treaty is unlikely when fighting finally stops, given the two sides’ diametrically opposed war aims.

A ceasefire or armistice are probably the most that can be expected. Skirmishing could continue after the war has ground to a halt.

Russian-occupied territories comprise 20% of Georgia’s national territory and Transdniestria........

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