By Célia Belin

Every time America changes president, European leaders work hard at establishing a close personal relationship, only to lament when the pendulum swing of politics strikes again. This year’s oscillation feels particularly unnerving.

Challenges to Europe’s security will be daunting if Donald Trump makes it back to the White House. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours”, while his vice-president pick, JD Vance, has alluded to a “peace plan” that appears more tailored to Russia’s views than Europe’s. Trump also said that Russia could do “whatever the hell they want” to delinquent NATO allies, and some in his camp are pushing for reducing US participation in NATO to nuclear deterrence while pulling out all troops. This is a huge contrast to Kamala Harris, for whom the support to NATO is “ironclad”. She has promised to continue supporting Ukraine and has repeatedly celebrated the importance of America’s alliances.

Europeans will come up with somewhat different strategies to engage the new president depending on who wins. If it’s Harris, Europeans will extend good wishes along with aspirational goals. If it’s Trump, Europeans will focus on offering him quick wins and cross their fingers to get in his good graces.........

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