Should Iran be able to maintain its choke-hold on the Hormuz, the geo-politics of Asia would be recast in a new strategic reality.

As we’re now in the fourth week of war, where next?

Firstly, although Iran has been subjected to intensive bombardment, the latter’s military effectiveness is far from evident. Iran’s ability to strike back at U.S. and Israeli interests in Gulf States continues with increasing power; its leadership operates effectively in its deliberately-chosen opaque mode (called mosaic); and Iran persists with regular missile and drone volleys, whilst incrementally elevating the sophistication of its missile barrage. Popular support for the Iranian State is consolidated.

The U.S. and Israeli barrages are causing heavy damage to Iran, but there is little evidence that these strikes have found – or destroyed – Iran’s dispersed and deeply buried missile ‘cities’ spread across the extent of the country. The evidence suggests rather, that in failing to destroy Iran’s hidden military infrastructure, the U.S. and Israel has turned its attention to civil targets aimed at demoralising the people – as we have seen deployed in the Lebanese and Palestinian arena.

Yet what seems incontrovertible is that Iran has a carefully thought-through strategy that is unfolding in distinct phases. Trump however, is without a plan. It changes daily. Israel does have a plan, which consists inassasinating as many of the Iranian leadership as their U.S.-provided AI can detect. Beyond that, Israel’s design is for Iran to be dismembered; divided into ethnic and sectarian statelets; and reduced to weak anarchy (on the Syrian model).

For now, the U.S. stated objectives show up as punctuated threats of escalation ranging from attacks on economic infrastructure (South Pars gas facilities) to two meaningful hits in the very near vicinity to Iranian nuclear sites (Nantaz and the joint Iranian-Russian operated Bushehr nuclear plant). Presumably these near missile strikes are........

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