It looks like Pierre Poilievre is going to be stuck with the worst damn job in all of Canada for a while longer.

Between Lori Idlout’s decision to defect from the NDP to the Liberals and Mark Carney’s team sure to win at least two if not all byelections next month, the Prime Minister will get his majority and Poilievre will stay as opposition leader.

LILLEY: What does Mark Carney's majority mean for Pierre Poilievre's future? Back to video

“It’s the worst damn job in the country,” Poilievre laughingly said to Peter Mansbridge on his podcast last week.

It’s going to be hard for Poilievre to change his job title, at least with voters. Once Carney gets his majority it’s going to be more than three years before voters head the polls again.

Liberals still hunting for floor crossers

The majority might get even bigger if Liberal House Leader Steve MacKinnon is right. He was telling reporters on Thursday that his party is courting still more MPs to cross the floor.

“Oh, I think very much so,” MacKinnon said.

“I think that Canadians who live in Conservative ridings look at their MPs and wish they would spend more time proposing solutions, participating in this great project on which we’ve embarked to build Canada.”

Poilievre would likely disagree with MacKinnon and would prefer his MPs stay put, but there is the question of whether Poilievre will stay put.

Poilievre faces a tough slog as opposition leader

Will Poilievre want to stick around that long doing a thankless job that nobody in their right mind wants to have for long?

There’s an old saying among political types, the worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition.

If Poilievre wants to keep his crappy and thankless job until 2029, he can have it. At this point, there is no one organizing against him, no movement to undermine him, and party delegates just gave him an 87.4% approval rating at the convention in January.

What Poilievre needs to work on is his approval rating with the general public.

In 2024, when he was riding high in the polls, his approval rating was fine. An Abacus Data poll from December of that year put Poilievre at 40% having a positive view of his and 40% negative, compared to 63% having a negative view of Justin Trudeau and just 20% positive.

Now, Abacus puts Poilievre’s negative rating at 44%, his positive at 37%. Mark Carney’s approval is 50% positive and 30% negative.

Poilievre was the perfect antidote to Justin Trudeau with his preachy, whiny, and arrogant way of lecturing the country. But he doesn’t fare as well against Carney.

Everything changed 15 months ago and could change again by next election

Things obviously changed with the election of Donald Trump, his talk of annexing Canada and Trudeau’s resignation. Voters were no longer looking for someone to rid us of the fool that was Trudeau, they were looking for a steady hand and turned to Mark Carney, a central banker out of central casting.

Unless there is an early election, and there really is no need once Carney gets his majority, voters won’t be casting a ballot until at least October 2029.

By that time, Donald Trump will be nearly a year in the rearview mirror. There will be a new president, though perhaps not a new attitude on free trade.

Protectionism is now a bipartisan issue in Washington and regardless of who wins the White House in 2028, we are likely to still see at least some of the same policies and a reluctance on free trade as we once knew it.

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So whether we see J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Gavin Newsom or some other new face in the White House in 2029, protectionism is unlikely to go away.

All of this changes the landscape, as does whether Carney wants to stick around for a second term. Those close to him have said he’s not in this for the long haul, wants to do the job, fix what he can and move on.

Which brings us all back to Poilievre’s future.

In the words of one of Mark Carney’s favourite bands, does Poilievre stay or does he go?

My bet is that he stays – for now.

blilley@postmedia.com

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