IRAN’S clerical regime seems to have weathered yet another wave of internal resistance, exploited, as always, by its external rivals. But the human losses have left a deep new wound on the Iranian psyche. The immediate threat of a US-Israeli strike has also dispersed. Washington and Tel Aviv, backed by most Gulf capitals, recalibrated their stance after strategic assessments highlighted the danger of a wider regional war and the absence of any realistic plan for a post-regime change scenario.

Inside Iran, resistance against the establishment still struggles to form a unified front or leadership. However, this does not mean the US, Israel or their allies have dropped the goal of political change in Tehran. Instead, they are adjusting their methods. Media reports indicate the regime will not collapse quickly due to a strong security apparatus, loyal institutions, and backing from a sizable segment of the population.

Even so, external actors, along with internal resistance networks, are unlikely to allow the regime much time to fully recover from this crisis. Pressure is expected to persist, shifting from low to high intensity, to gradually soften the ground for change.

A key indicator that the ground is fertile for such a shift are the visible cracks within the Assembly of Experts (Majles-i-Khobregan-i-Rahbari), the Guardian Council (Shura-i-Negahban), and disputes within or between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular military (Artesh). All these critical institutions are still aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s core........

© Dawn