IF the merciless monsoon rains and floods in India are any indicator, Pakistan can anticipate heavy rains and flooding in several parts of the country. Hardly have we recouped from heatwaves, landslides and glacial disasters that we face more dark clouds on the horizon. How can we plan anticipatory actions to protect ourselves, and our communities and their assets, not forgetting our schools, hospitals, and other public infrastructure?

Planning for humanitarian provisions such as water, food, medicine, and shelter is crucial, but this is essentially post-disaster action. In climate change parlance, anticipatory actions have begun to assume a new meaning, which requires a chain of preparatory measures well ahead of the anticipated disaster. This is to reduce human suffering and the cost to the economy and ecosystems.

Anticipatory allocations refer to prearranged funds and actions to mitigate the impact of predictable risks before they fully unfold. It is based on five pillars: i) linking weather forecasts to trigger mechanisms that release prearranged financing, ii) pre-agreed specific actions that can alter the trajectory of the crisis, iii) prearranged funds made available to immediately initiate time-critical activities, iv) reviewing laws and policies for institutionalisation and coordination mechanisms, and v) developing documentation on learning and evidence from each instance.

In the present state of climate governance, the last may sound overly academic. But its urgency cannot be contested. Had we drawn any lessons from the 2010 floods, according to Gen Nadeem Ahmed, who was then heading the NDMA and coordinating the government’s flood response, the cost of the 2022 floods would have been halved. Since we have seen no formal lesson-learning after the 2022 floods, which inflicted losses to the tune of $15 billion, one can........

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