THE war between the US-Israel and Iran catapulted a regional conflict into a systemic shock within an already fragile global economy, causing a dangerous rupture in the world’s climate trajectory. What made the moment uniquely perilous was not only the scale of military confrontation, but the fact that it was occurring at a time when scientists have repeatedly warned that the window to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius is rapidly closing effectively by 2030.

Energy lies at the heart of the economic fallout. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent to 25pc of global petroleum liquid consumption passes, has triggered one of the sharpest energy shocks in modern history. About 80pc of the oil passing through the strait is destined for Asian markets. Oil prices surged by over 50pc since the war began, while gas prices in Europe and Asia have spiked dramatically. This has translated directly into inflationary pressures across economies. Energy is a foundational input; when fuel costs rise, so do transportation, manufacturing and food prices. Indeed, oil and gas prices can account for up to 50pc of food price variability globally, illustrating how deeply energy shocks penetrate everyday life.

The consequences are profoundly unequal. While the US, as a major energy producer, has been relatively insulated, much of the Global South is experiencing acute distress. Countries like Pakistan, dependent on imported fuel are facing crises, rationing and industrial slowdowns.........

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