For much of the past decade, Pakistan had been strategically adrift — crippled by economic mismanagement, plagued by political instability, and viewed by allies and partners as a state whose problems needed to be managed lest they create wider instability. Simply put, Pakistan was broadly seen as the sick man of South Asia.

By the time 2025 rolled in, the country‘s polycrisis was still raging. But fast forward a few months, and the year’s outlook shifted to one of opportunities, with an emerging geopolitical reality in the region.

Much like historical geopolitical openings that have come Pakistan’s way, this moment also arose from a confluence of regional shocks and strategic recalculations that reshaped how power and security are being reassessed around the world, particularly in West Asia and the Middle East.

Two developments in particular created a unique window for Pakistan: the first was the Trump administration’s post-ceasefire plan for Gaza. Despite being contested over its details, the initiative compelled regional actors to confront an uncomfortable truth: the United States was prepared to underwrite a new regional security and political architecture that would require regional powers to take greater ownership of their own security needs.

Washington’s strategic evolution — or retreat, as referred to by some — is not unique to the Middle East; from Europe to East Asia, the Trump administration wants its allies and partners to take greater ownership of their own security.

The second and more consequential event occurred when Israel’s increasingly belligerent actions culminated in Tel Aviv’s strikes on Doha. This served as an inflexion point for Gulf states,........

© Dawn Prism