Pakistan’s agriculture sector is witnessing a notable change in cropping patterns, driven by a complex interplay of various factors, including climate change and evolving market dynamics. However, it is concerning that the change appears to be out of sync with government planning and future development objectives set by our policymakers.

The changing cropping patterns raise a pertinent policy issue: how can Pakistan’s overall agricultural productivity be increased through the right selection of crops? What and how much should be grown, and why?

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, agricultural statistics spanning 2012 to 2022 reveal that the wheat crop area has seen a moderate increase from 8.7 million to 8.9m hectares — a rise of 3.8 per cent. Notably, over the said ten-year period, rice, maize (corn), and sugarcane crop areas have surged by 37pc, 52pc, and 19pc respectively.

However, this increase occurred primarily at the expense of cotton, which plummeted from 2.8m to 1.9m hectares during the same period, reflecting a staggering 32pc decrease.

Policies to encourage specific crops while disregarding critical factors are ineffective as farmers shift towards their preferred options

Not only has the cultivation of much-cherished cotton experienced a decline, but the combined areas of major edible oil seeds (sunflower, canola, rapeseed, and mustard), as well as pulses (gram, mung, mash, and lentil), have also experienced a shrinking trend, with negative growths of 31pc and 1.5pc respectively over 2012-2022 period. Regrettably, the provisional figure of the area of pulses planted in 2022-2023, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey, indicates a further decline of 9.9pc within a mere year.

The........

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