Pakistan has experienced a massive decline in cotton production over the last decade — from 13.9 million bales in FY15 to 7.08m bales in FY25. Meanwhile, the crop area decreased from 7.31m to 5.04m acres as per Pakistan Economic Survey data. Resultantly, State Bank data shows that Pakistan, which was once a net exporter of cotton, imported cotton and cotton yarn (HS code 52) worth $3.13 billion in FY25.

Recently, the Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan chaired an inter-ministerial meeting — attended by the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association — to deliberate on the revival of cotton. In fact, the revival plan is based on a core assumption: that developing improved seed varieties through intensive research and development, ensuring quality seed production, and delivering these seeds effectively to farmers will restore cotton production.

However, ground realities have fundamentally changed over the past decade, and the factors driving cotton’s decline have become far more complex than seed quality alone.

For policymakers, it is crucial to recognise that in Pakistan — where crop zoning has never been enforced — farmers increasingly base their crop choices on financial returns. Shrinking landholdings and mounting economic pressures have made profitability the overriding factor. When a crop offers greater returns, a large number of farmers shift quickly, regardless of higher production costs, labour requirements, or operational difficulties involved.

Any agriculture policy that overlooks its impact on farmers’ earnings is bound to fail

A recent example........

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