From the volume of reporting and analyzing of this week’s Iowa Republican caucuses, you’d think something important happened. Donald Trump, the “winner” of the caucuses, has been found guilty of sexually abusing and defaming E. Jean Carroll. Two Trump organization companies have been found guilty on multiple charges of criminal tax fraud and falsifying business records connected to a 15-year scheme to defraud tax authorities by failing to report and pay taxes on compensation for its executives. Trump faces multiple other felony indictments. He is widely recognized to have fostered an insurrection against the government. So, let’s put Iowa, its caucuses, and its “winner” in some realistic context with some good old-fashioned common sense and arithmetic.

First, the common sense. Most Americans vote in presidential primaries by, well, voting. That means there is early voting in many states. If it’s not possible to go to the polls in person,........

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