The dominant narrative around a government’s record is more important than the facts, writes Paul Ormerod

Since the election in July, Starmers have been the stock to short. In the middle of that month, the Prime Minister had a net approval rating of plus 19 per cent. It is now minus 26 per cent, a huge 45 point turnround.

But as with all stocks, past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. In terms of medium to long-term planning, a Labour government in 2029 certainly cannot be written off.

True, the Labour Party itself has been performing badly in council by-elections, losing seats to the Conservatives and, last week, to the SNP. This is very unusual so early in the life of a government.

But current polls can be a very poor guide to the outcome of elections held several years in the future.........

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