Natwest Group shares reached their 52-week (and 13-year) high earlier this month, closing near 390p per share on 4 November. The new peak was reached after leading broker Peel Hunt upgraded the bank’s price target from 410p to 450p.

The share price has surged by more than 50 per cent since the UK government gave up its controlling stake in the bank in March (along with its role in the bank’s decision making). Recent months have also seen earnings upgrades and mitigations of some legal issues – mainly the prospect of hefty fines from the motor finance fiasco.

The UK government, which held 14.56 per cent stake, has sold directly to Natwest Group 263m shares, representing 3.6 per cent of the group’s issued share capital, at 380.6p per share, valuing the transaction at £1bn. The government has not made a profit on this and the five separate deals since 2021, as it bought the 84 per cent stake during the financial crisis at an average price of 502p. Could the government have mitigated some of these losses by waiting for a couple of months after the 52-week high before selling shares back to the Natwest Group?

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