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Saskatchewan’s Potash Deal with the US is more than a Warning, it is a Harbinger

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Capt. Barry Sheehy CD. ——Bio and Archives--December 23, 2025

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Canada is committed to diversifying its trade to Asia and Europe and reducing its reliance of the US market which absorbs 75% of Canada’s exports. Redirecting this volume of trade by even 10% will impact 150 billion dollars in goods and services, requiring significant investment in transportation infrastructure, especially roads, rail, ports and regulatory reform.

It will further require expansion of all sources of Canadian energy accompanied by an intensive focus on extracting Canada’s abundant natural resources. In that context, recent decisions by the potash producing company Nutrien in Saskatchewan to export valuable potash through Wahington State rather than Vancouver, should raise alarm bells in Ottawa and across Canada. This represents more than the loss of a billion-dollar investment and the shift south of one of Canada’s major strategic exports, it signals loss of confidence in the existing trade order. It is a workaround on a grand scale and portends more to come.

At its most basic, this decision represents regional blowback from Canada’s resource and agriculture rich Prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The longstanding hostility of BC and Ottawa toward the construction of pipelines, port facilities and rail heads needed to export Prairie products (like oil, gas and potash) to market came home to roost. BC’s recalcitrance triggered a nerve. This represents more than just a shot across the bow but a real warning that existing trade structures are not serving Prairie interests. The message is clear, if Canada does not provide the exports capacity these provinces need, they will shift south for solutions.

This shows exactly why Canada urgently needs to invest in east, west, and northern transportation infrastructure. When Canada’s potash producers calculated the numbers, they concluded our transportation and port systems were not adequate. Why? Unstable labor relations, excessive regulations, transportation bottlenecks, poor port productivity, endless approvals and consultation, combined with a host of other costs all made shipping via Canada uncompetitive.[1] When........

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