We’re only halfway through the year, and already 2024 has produced more high-voltage political shockwaves than any other in recent memory. This way, there’s no telling where the world will be around July next year.

Grandpa Joe’s “trainwreck” embarrassment at last week’s presidential debate, not concrete policy issues – especially Trump’s penchant for protectionism and tax breaks for the ultra-rich – is already the biggest talking point in the American presidential election; especially since the Democrats are not open (so far) to gambling with a replacement this late in the cycle.

So the world will watch as Americans choose between a fast fading octogenarian and a convicted felon for the “world’s most difficult, demanding and important job”; a sad reflection indeed on the state of decay and decline in the US imperium. Already, nobody expects a person of Biden’s declining cognitive abilities to stabilise the economy, trim the $2t budget deficit (7pc of GDP), address Nato’s existential crisis on the battlefields of Ukraine, or even have a clue about the volatility that will erupt in the Middle East when Israel decides to invade Lebanon.

Ceteris paribus, markets will now price in a Trump return........

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