The incidence of poverty has skyrocketed in Pakistan since the Covid-19 pandemic and the disastrous floods of 2022. The years 2019-20 and 2022-23 both saw negative GDP growth. Therefore, since 2018-19 up to 2022-23, the average GDP growth rate annually over the four-year period has been 2.7%, compared to the annual population growth rate of 2.5%. This implies that there has only been a less than 1% cumulative increase in real per capita income since 2018-19.

There are varying estimates of the incidence of poverty today in Pakistan. This variation is due largely to the approach adopted for measurement of the extent of poverty among households in the country. There is also a tendency for official estimates to grossly understate the level of poverty and to show a decline in incidence during the tenure of an incumbent government.

The Pakistan Economic Survey of 2021-22 highlights the trend in the incidence of poverty. This is based on the percentage of population with income below the poverty line. The poverty line is based on the cost of ensuring the provision of basic nutritional requirements.

The incidence of poverty is reported at 29.5% of the population in 2013-14, with a decline to 21.9% in 2018-19. If true, then this represents an outstanding performance in alleviating poverty in Pakistan.

The World Development Indicators database of the World Bank gives the estimates of the incidence of poverty in Pakistan, based on an international poverty line of $3.65 per day, measured in 2017 PPP. The incidence is reported at 44.6% in 2013-14 and falling to 39.8% in 2018-19. Not only........

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