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Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Business Recorder

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Problems with IMF projections—II

The previous article had highlighted the problems with the macroeconomic projections by the IMF in the Staff Report of September 2024 on the new...

previous day 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Problem with IMF projections

An IMF delegation has probably arrived in Pakistan to conduct a ‘stock-taking’ as indicated by the Finance Minister. This is, therefore, the...

12.11.2024 30

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Fiscal outcome in first quarter

The first quarter of 2024-25 has closed with an unusual and extremely positive outcome. There is actually a budgetary surplus of Rs1,537 billion. This...

05.11.2024 90

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Structural reforms in IMF programme

The Staff Report on the new 37-month Extended Fund Facility by the IMF of $7 billion contains a number of structural benchmarks, along with their...

29.10.2024 90

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Performance targets in IMF programme

The newly approved IMF Programme in the form of a 37-month Extended Fund Facility can be considered as perhaps the toughest ever for Pakistan. This...

22.10.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Macroeconomic projections of IMF, WB

There have been two very recent sets of macroeconomic projections for Pakistan. The first is in the IMF Staff Report on the Extended Fund Facility for...

15.10.2024 30

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Emerging negative factors

There is an air of general optimism about the economy today. The Extended Fund Facility of $7 billion was approved by the IMF Executive Board almost...

08.10.2024 50

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

The investment slump

The year, 2023-24, has witnessed the lowest ever level of fixed investment in Pakistan. It is estimated at 11.4% of the GDP. This is in comparison to...

01.10.2024 20

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Mixed signals on the economy

The first quarter of 2024-25 is going to come to an end shortly. During these three months, there have been a number of developments on the economic...

24.09.2024 50

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Rising public debt

The SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has released figures of total debt and public debt of Pakistan as of end-June 2024. The total public debt of the...

19.09.2024 60

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

FBR revenue targets for 2024-25

The first two months of 2024-25 have already revealed serious problems with the overall and individual revenue targets for FBR taxes. Identification...

10.09.2024 50

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Sectoral growth patterns in FY2023-24

The latest Pakistan Economic Survey for 2023-24, released in June, contains a comprehensive set of estimates on the multifarious features of the...

03.09.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Social sector spending

The Federal Ministry of Finance has released the estimates of poverty-related expenditures for 2022-23. Thanks are due to the PRSP Secretariat of the...

27.08.2024 60

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Findings of 2023 population census

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has recently disseminated the detailed results of the 7th Population and Housing Census of Pakistan, completed...

20.08.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Budgetary outcome in 2023-24

The statistics on the outcome of fiscal operations by the federal and provincial governments in 2023-24 were released recently by the federal ministry...

13.08.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Medium-term budget strategy

The Federal Ministry of Finance has released the Medium-Term Budget Strategy Statement for the period, 2024-25 to 2026-27. The Fiscal Responsibility...

06.08.2024 20

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

A fragile balance of payments

The statistics on the external balance of payments of Pakistan in 2023-24 were released last week by the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan). These...

30.07.2024 70

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Provincial budgets for FY2024-25

The provincial budgets for 2024-25 have all been presented last month in the respective Provincial Assemblies. However, they have not received much...

23.07.2024 80

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Outlook for 2024-25

The last week’s article on outlook for 2024-25 by this writer in Business Recorder had focused on the projections for the year of the GDP growth...

16.07.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Outlook for FY25

The fiscal year, 2024-25, promises to be an eventful year. It will see early negotiations between the Government of Pakistan and the International...

09.07.2024 80

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Some key budgetary magnitudes

The Federal Budget for 2024-25 has been examined by the Parliament and following some amendments it has been implemented from the 1st of July for the...

02.07.2024 30

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

State of the economy

The fiscal year 2023-24 is likely to close with a mixed performance by the economy. On the positive side, there has been a modest recovery in the GDP...

25.06.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

An appraisal of FY25 federal budget

The Federal budget for 2024-25 has been presented in a mixed economic environment characterised by both positive and negative developments. The GDP...

20.06.2024 60

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Big fall in the rate of inflation

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has come up with a very pleasant surprise. The year-to-year rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer...

11.06.2024 90

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Big financing risks

The IMF Staff Mission has left Pakistan after a series of meetings on the next Fund Programme in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for the...

28.05.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

IMF projections for FY2024-25

The IMF Staff Report on the Second and Final Review under the Stand-by Arrangement was released on the 10th of May 2024. It contains a set of detailed...

21.05.2024 200

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

The education emergency

Shehbaz Sharif declared an ‘education emergency’ across Pakistan on Wednesday, the 8th of May 2024. This is in recognition of the fact that with...

14.05.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Uncertain budgetary outcome in 2023-24

The outcome numbers on the fiscal operations for the first three quarters of 2023-24 have been released recently by the Federal Ministry of Finance. ...

07.05.2024 70

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

The falling rate of inflation

The last few months have witnessed a major drop in the rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. According to the Pakistan Bureau of...

30.04.2024 90

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Persistent decline of manufacturing sector

The latest monthly data for February 2024 on the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) has been released recently by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics....

23.04.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

The education crisis

The Prime Minister has rightly lamented recently on the lack of access to education of children generally and especially from poor families or those...

16.04.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Contours of a new IMF programme-II

This is the second article on the contours of a new IMF Programme. The first article was published last week. It focused on the projected external...

09.04.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Contours of new IMF programme

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has reiterated recently the need for moving ahead with a new IMF (International Monetary Fund) programme for a longer...

02.04.2024 50

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Attacks on the NFC Award

There have recently been some attacks on the 7th NFC award relating to the distribution of federal tax revenues between the federal and provincial...

26.03.2024 200

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Pakistan falls in human development

The global Human Development Report of 2023-24 has been released recently by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) from New York. Since 1990,...

19.03.2024 200

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Dip in the rate of inflation

There has been a visible and welcome slowdown in the rate of inflation in February 2024. The year-to-year rate of inflation has come down from 28.3%...

12.03.2024 70

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Economic contradictions

There are a number of economic events and happenings in Pakistan which are difficult to find immediate and rational explanations for. This is the...

05.03.2024 70

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Outlook for BoP

The balance of payments (BoP) statistics released by the State Bank of Pakistan for the period July 2023 to January 2024 reveal a positive picture....

27.02.2024 70

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Targets in the PML-N manifesto

The manifesto of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) contains a set of key macroeconomic targets from 2023-24 to 2028-29. This is the five-year...

20.02.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Latest IMF projections

The Staff Report of the IMF on the First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement was released on the 19th of January 2024. It contains a revised set of...

13.02.2024 70

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Budgetary outcome in first half of FY24

The information on the fiscal operations by the federal and the provincial governments in the first half of 2023-24 has been released by the federal...

06.02.2024 20

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Rising poverty

The incidence of poverty has skyrocketed in Pakistan since the Covid-19 pandemic and the disastrous floods of 2022. The years 2019-20 and 2022-23 both...

30.01.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Post-general election economic outlook

Elections will hopefully be held in the next two weeks. They are taking place at a time when the economy continues to be characterized by severe...

23.01.2024 50

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

IMF projections

The good news is that the IMF Executive Board has completed the First Review of the Stand-By Arrangement for Pakistan and authorized the immediate...

16.01.2024 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Concerns of the World Bank

An article titled “Economic Turnaround Moment?” has recently been published in the newspaper, Dawn. It has been written by Martin Raiser, World...

09.01.2024 100

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Problematic statistics

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has been endeavoring to improve the quality and coverage of statistics in Pakistan. These efforts include the...

02.01.2024 50

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Fall in industrial production

The statistics on the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) has been released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for the month of October 2023....

26.12.2023 80

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Outlook for inflation

The statement released recently by the Monetary Policy Committee of the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) indicates that the policy rate will remain...

19.12.2023 20

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Mixed economic trends

The first five months of 2023-24 have witnessed upturns and downturns both globally and within Pakistan. There was earlier some evidence that the...

12.12.2023 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

Growth in federal tax revenues

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has released recently the Revenue Division Year Book for 2022-23. This is a very useful publication and highlights...

05.12.2023 40

Business Recorder

Dr Hafiz A Pasha

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