At Duntroon, we were told on morning parades to “ponder the day ahead”. It was wise advice. Currently, Australian strategists will be pondering the year ahead for our national security.

In Ukraine, Russia seeks to project an air of inevitable victory with a range of offensive activities. This is important tactically, as it seeks to reverse Ukrainian gains from 2023. It is also important politically as Russia approaches its 2024 elections, continues its global misinformation campaigns about Western patience, and offers a “ceasefire” that would allow it to reconstitute its forces for future offensives.

An Israeli solider at an artillery base near the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah has nearly 10 times the number of missiles as Hamas and a bigger, more professional fighting force. Credit: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg

But Ukraine’s development of new defensive lines, and longer-range strike capacity, will make Russian offensives difficult to succeed.

The trajectory of the war in Ukraine in 2024 will be heavily influenced by whether the US Congress can agree on military assistance. While the Germans, Dutch, Danes and others have stepped up support for Ukraine, this will be insufficient to reconstitute the Ukrainian military for future offensives. US assistance will be essential for Ukraine’s 2024 campaigns.

The West has belatedly realised that Ukraine, and other burgeoning conflicts, are wars of industrial systems. Being able to out-produce adversaries in equipment and munitions is essential to war-fighting and deterrence. The alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has developed into........

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