For over four decades, Lebanon has lived under the shadow of proxy wars, external manipulation, and internal fragmentation. The turning points that shaped this predicament are well known: the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon that lasted from 1978 to 2000, the rise of Hezbollah as an armed non-state actor, and the subsequent erosion of Lebanese state authority. Now, a quarter of a century later, a rare opportunity has emerged-one that could finally reverse that trajectory. With President Michel Aoun’s recent declaration that Lebanon must pursue negotiations with Israel through diplomatic means, the idea of peace between the two countries, long deemed impossible, is once again on the table.

But this time, the circumstances are dramatically different. Hezbollah, the dominant force that once dictated Lebanon’s security and foreign policy, has been severely weakened following years of conflict, sanctions, and military setbacks. Meanwhile, the Lebanese state-though fragile-appears eager to reassert control over matters of war and peace. If handled wisely, this could mark the beginning of a new chapter: one where Lebanon transitions from being a proxy battlefield to a sovereign actor seeking stability and peace.

To understand the magnitude of the moment, one must revisit the history that created Hezbollah’s dominance. In May 2000, Israel withdrew unilaterally from southern Lebanon after 22 years of occupation. Then–Prime Minister Ehud Barak made the decision to end a costly and unpopular military presence that had drained Israel’s economy and morale. The withdrawal was meant to stabilize Israel’s northern border, but it had the opposite effect.

In the power vacuum left behind, Israel’s proxy force, the South Lebanese Army (SLA), quickly disintegrated, and Hezbollah-the Iran-backed Shiite militia-moved in. Overnight, Hezbollah became not only the “liberator” of southern Lebanon but also a dominant political and military force. The Lebanese state was too weak and divided to fill the gap. As a result, Hezbollah became the de facto authority in the south, positioning itself as both a resistance force and a political entity-a dual role that allowed it to overshadow national institutions.

The situation was exacerbated by Israel’s retention of the Shebaa Farms, a small but........

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