I don't make election predictions or endorse candidates. People make a living doing the former, some combing through data and explaining afterward why an outcome they described as unlikely was consistent with their expectations. I understand the distinction between a probability and a promise, but where I come from, a lost bet is a lost bet.

As for endorsements, I don't want to be anybody's intellectual mascot or boss. I describe; I don't prescribe. I'm interested in how people make decisions and what happens once those we elect exercise the authority we've given them. While I vote, I respect a few journalists of my acquaintance who decline to do so. As the man says, it just encourages them.

Election Day is Tuesday, a relief to those who refuse to accept ideology as identity. I've exhausted my interest in the candidates' talking points. Republicans hold every statewide partisan office in Arkansas and every seat in our congressional delegation. But maybe a few incumbents are nervous. I'm interested in the people making them nervous.

Polls deserve more respect. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found polling in 2024 more accurate than in 2016 or 2020, although it underestimated Republican support. Accurate measurements can still leave the winner uncertain. We forgive a three-point miss when our candidate wins comfortably and regard the same error as malpractice when it gives us a surprise.

A peculiar assortment of Arkansans--progressives, conventional Democrats, independents and conservatives--seems to be finding common ground in exhaustion with MAGA. Some may be embarrassed by the company.

Consider my colleague Rex Nelson and........

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