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Martin WolfFinancial Times |
The Big Beautiful Bill Act is a classic example of pluto-populism
Trump’s tariff war brings with it unpredictability and a consequent loss of confidence
Consolidation of funds makes evident sense, bringing economies of scale and scope
Given all this fragility, recessionary or inflationary shocks — or even both together — are conceivable
Deals struck recently with the US, EU and India will not make a significant difference to Britain’s parlous position
The difficulty is that, however unsatisfactory the hegemon might be, the alternatives look worse
We now seem unable to turn the surplus in some countries into productive investment elsewhere
China and others must think afresh as the US steps away from its role as balancer of last resort
Trump’s unreliable America is throwing away the assets it needs
A country as mired in stagnation as the UK has to take risks if it is to succeed
How is it possible that a company with such huge resources, including artificial intelligence tools, cannot deal with this?
The IMF is trying to make sense of the unknowable
Trump’s delight in doing whatever he wishes in the moment is incompatible with stability and sustained dynamism
The situation is dire and only active policymaking is going to make a difference
The trade deficits will remain roughly unchanged — the globe will just end up poorer
Policymakers in Beijing believe they will benefit from the destruction of America’s global credibility
The government must embark on a much more radical programme of structural reforms
How do technocrats expect the needed macroeconomic adjustments to occur?
The US president wants both to protect domestic manufacturing and hold the dollar as the reserve currency
The government needs to view the hard times coming upon us as an opportunity, as well as a crisis
The continent is an economic superpower but it now has to mobilise in defence of democracy
America is trying to undo the very system of open trade that it created
Spending on defence will need to rise substantially if the UK is to meet the challenges it faces
Washington has decided to abandon both Ukraine and its postwar role in the world
A complex society is best served by a competent, professional and neutral public service
Without resources, they will be grossly unprepared for the difficult business of governing
Until now, the US has been a strikingly benign and successful hegemon
An inconsistent US is an unreliable partner — it’s that simple
Britain is in a hole and the government is right to try to dig it out
The impact of artificial intelligence on productivity could be epoch-making
An economic renaissance is unlikely, not least because the US economy is very far from the disaster he proclaims it to be
The government must retain the confidence of its creditors
We must hope that the American people will not lightly abandon the enlightenment traditions of their country
He drove radical reform of an anti-market policy regime that was strangling growth
There is a danger that animal spirits and the propensity to invest expire in a vicious downward spiral
As it faces fresh challenges, Europe should remember that neither economic integration nor convergence among member states was inevitable
Opportunities exist for the UK and its European neighbours, but they must grasp the nettle of economic reform
We can draw important lessons from the UK’s varied experience
Are American pathologies the necessary price of economic dynamism?
The deal on financing agreed at COP29 is too little, too late
This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to create a system able to enhance both prosperity and security
Tariffs, especially on one country, will lead to an unholy economic and political mess
It is so much easier to blame the disappearance of these US jobs on China than on domestic consumers and automation
Relations with both the US and EU are now called into question
The country needs a strategy that takes on its most obvious weaknesses
Were the former president to return to the White House, it would encourage rightwing populists everywhere
But significant downside risks will continue to pose a challenge for policymakers
The chancellor’s task is made much harder by structural weaknesses in the UK economy
His new suggestions would have a far bigger impact than the relatively modest ‘starter protectionism’ of his first term
There are reasons to expect real rates to go even higher
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