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Mark Mellman, Opinion ContributorThe Hill |
The country is awash in hundreds, if not thousands, of election analyses, but many of the tools being employed are laden with problems and pitfalls...
The correlation between Senate and presidential votes has been increasing, with 2024 yielding four mismatches, but the average difference between the...
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks.
Democrats should not be surprised by the election results, as fundamentals such as the economy, incumbency, and the incumbent president's approval...
The game of deciding who decides elections is a complex one, with no clear definition of who decides the outcome, and the interaction of all...
Donald Trump's appeal is based on uniting three strands of conservatism, aversion to government, aversion to change, and aversion to difference, and...
The correlation between presidential and Senate votes has increased significantly over the past few decades, with Democrats outperforming their...
Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a dramatic reversal in her favorability ratings, with voters now viewing her as net favorable by 3 points in the...
Donald Trump's first reaction to any pressure is to lie. Trump is also frighteningly gullible, seemingly unable to distinguish trustworthy sources of...
Debates are rarely decisive in determining the outcome of presidential elections, with the impact of a debate being minimal and often overshadowed by...
Replacing Joe Biden with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket weeks before the convention led to a shift of less than a point and a...
The impact of an assassination attempt on an election is unpredictable, with some politicians benefiting from the incident while others do not, as...
President Biden's mental and physical health, as well as his debate performance, are being scrutinized by the political world, but it is impossible to...
With Donald Trump’s felony convictions inscribed in the historical record and the first debate of the presidential cycle about to take place, time...
In short, despite the definitional diversity, one conclusion seems clear: Democrats are no longer the preferred party of the working class.
robes. Partisanship and ideology are more important to them than integrity and the Constitution they swore to defend.
If the argument I’ve made here before is right — if people live less in a “jobs economy” and more in a “cost of living economy,” we can...
The key point though is that a decision to mix two seemingly quite different categories of responses produced a significant impact on the analysis...
Politicians who appear to capitulate to the demands of the mob have much to lose and little to gain — unless your goal is to assist Trump.
Forecasters who suggest one candidate or the other is a certain victor have a 50/50 chance of being 100 percent right.
The lesson is clear. Question wording can have a substantial impact on responses, with complex or confusing wording yielding inaccurate results and...
Donald Trump, hardly known as a scholar of Christian scripture, is now hawking Bibles. It is a strange story that sums up an important reality in...
President Biden’s approval rating actually increased by 2 points in the wake of this SOTU, better than the average increase of zero.
President Biden delivered a great speech, galvanizing Democrats, demonstrating he’s still at the top of his game, giving his troops talking points...
Predicting general election outcomes from primary results is a fool’s errand. The next redoubt of those scouring the tea leaves provided by primary...
Beliefs are persistent, stubborn things. People fancy themselves open to new information and diverse perspectives, and sometimes we are. But mostly,...
Why do these candidates so frequently postpone their reckoning with reality for so long? While each has his or her own psychology, from my experience...
Interpreting poll results requires strict fealty to the parameters of the questions’ wording. Trying to measure complex concepts with one or two...
Support for Donald Trump was forged by partisanship and held in place by a combination of that partisanship and people’s reluctance to change their...
People like world peace and ceasefires. But public policy involves tradeoffs and conflicting values. Understanding how voters make the tradeoffs...
Two different questions—both seemingly reasonable—yielding opposite forecasts. How is that possible?
In short, be careful interpreting crosstabs, and even more important, don’t plan a campaign strategy around applying conventional wisdom to the...
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