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Christopher Rugaber

Christopher Rugaber

RealClearPolitics

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Inflation's persistence is killing hope for a Fed rate cut in 2024

The Fed's mandate is to strike a balance between keeping rates high enough to control inflation yet not so high as to damage the job market.

yesterday 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Jerome Powell’s Fed is beginning to think its interest rate hikes ‘may be having smaller effects than in the past’

Federal Reserve minutes show central bankers reevaluating their main tool for fighting inflation.

22.05.2024 50

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation cools in April after 3 straight hot readings

Prices rose 0.3% from March to April, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down slightly from 0.4% the previous month.

15.05.2024 20

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Jerome Powell says it’s ‘different this time’—and Americans and their mortgage rates are a key reason why

But the Fed chair "wouldn't call it hot," saying the wholesale inflation report was "sort of mixed."

14.05.2024 20

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation just won't quit as wholesale prices rise at the fastest rate in a year

The Fed "has virtually no standing to entertain rate cuts this summer," said one economist.

14.05.2024 20

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

For Fed president it’s ’just too early to think' about cutting

A major concern expressed by both Fed policymakers and some economists is that higher borrowing costs aren't having as much of an impact as...

13.05.2024 90

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation and unemployment fears send consumer sentiment tumbling to a 6-month low

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 67.4 this month from a final reading of 77.2 in April.

10.05.2024 60

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Fed says 'lack of further progress' on inflation will keep interest rates at 2-decade highs

Several hotter-than-expected reports on prices and economic growth have recently undercut the Fed’s belief that inflation was steadily easing.

01.05.2024 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

How the baby boomer 'wealth effect' is driving inflation: it's 'the richest retiring generation we’ve ever had'

It's the so-called “wealth effect," whereby rising home and stock values give people confidence to increase their spending.

29.04.2024 40

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge sped up in March, a conundrum for rate hikes—and Biden's re-election prospects

Measured by the PCE index, prices were up 2.7% year-over-year in March, up from a 2.5% annual rise in February.

26.04.2024 30

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Powell threatens to keep interest rates high ‘as long as needed’ as recent data show it’s ‘likely to take longer than expected’ for inflation to fall

“Recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence" that inflation is coming fully under control, the Federal Reserve chair said during a...

17.04.2024 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Another top Fed officials warns of higher-for-longer interest rates: 'Sustainably restoring 2% inflation is not yet done'

Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson joins a chorus of officials suggesting rate cuts are a long way away.

16.04.2024 9

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Consumers are getting more pessimistic as inflation refuses to fall

"Consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election," the survey's director said.

12.04.2024 50

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Federal Reserve minutes reveal that all 19 officials were bracing for another hot inflation read

Per the minutes of the Fed's March 19-20 meeting, all 19 officials agreed that January and February data “had not increased their confidence” that...

10.04.2024 7

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation still hot in March, giving pause to Fed as it weighs whether to cut rates this year

Prices outside the volatile food and energy categories rose 0.4% from February to March, the same accelerated pace as in the previous month.

10.04.2024 9

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

What’s behind the U.S.-China spat over Chinese ‘overcapacity’ and its ‘existential threat’ to the world’s auto and other industries

After more than a decade of subsidizing its automakers, China has built a substantial car industry that accounts for 60% of global electric vehicle...

08.04.2024 30

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Top economist says the Fed will not cut rates this year

“If the data is too strong, then why are we cutting?” asked Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

06.04.2024 8

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Powell still sees rate cuts this year with inflation falling on a ‘bumpy’ path

“The recent data do not ... materially change the overall picture,” Powell said in a speech at Stanford University.

03.04.2024 5

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Fed still sees 3 rate cuts this year, sending stocks soaring

But Fed officials also forecast stronger GDP growth and stubborn inflation, meaning interest rates would have to stay slightly higher for longer.

20.03.2024 8

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Jerome Powell seems ready to hand a victory to big banks, saying ‘broad and material’ changes are coming to key regulation

Large banks aggressively opposed the changes known as the “Basel III endgame,” arguing they would limit lending ability and exceed what is...

07.03.2024 8

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

'Consumers are more powerful than President Biden': The war on greedflation is being won one private-label brand at a time

Stuart Dryden, a 37-year-old in Virginia, says he's been trying private-label groceries: "the quality is the same and it’s almost a no-brainer to...

25.02.2024 9

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

'What's the rush?' The Fed's last meeting had a lot of talk dousing Wall Street's hopes for rate cuts

“We need to verify that the progress on inflation we saw in the last half of 2023 will continue and this means there is no rush,” Christopher...

23.02.2024 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Wholesale prices jumped in January, the latest sign inflation remains stubbornly sticky

The producer price index — which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers — rose 0.3% in January after falling the month before.

16.02.2024 20

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation fails to fall below 3%, disappointing economic forecasts

Inflation in January fell to 3.1%, from 3.4% in December, but economists were expecting to see 2.9%.

13.02.2024 3

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

With the whole world waiting for the Fed to cut rates, official says 'history tells many stories of inflation head-fakes'

Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin, in a speech Thursday, noted a 1986 surge after Paul Volcker cut rates. "I would love to avoid that roller-coaster...

09.02.2024 7

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Fed chair Powell says the Federal Reserve remains on track to cut interest rates 3 times this year

Powell, in an interview recorded Thursday for the CBS news program “60 Minutes,” also said the nation's job market and economy are strong, with no...

05.02.2024 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The huge tech and media layoffs are outliers: Blockbuster job growth show certain sectors overhired in pandemic

The unemployment rate for workers in what the government calls the “information” sector jumped to 5.5% in January from 3.9% a year ago.

03.02.2024 30

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The Fed's preferred inflation metric cooled again in December as soft landing beckons

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.2% from November while cooling to 2.9% year-over-year—both lower than expected.

26.01.2024 5

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Slower inflation, higher incomes, lower gas prices and a rising stock market—Americans are starting to like the economy

A measure of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan has jumped in the past two months by the most since 1991.

24.01.2024 40

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation, employment picture 'almost as good as it gets,' top Federal Reserve official says

Christopher Waller wrote to the Brookings Institution that he is "feeling more confident that the economy can continue along its current...

17.01.2024 6

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Fed expected to keep interest rates unchanged—does that mean rate hikes are over?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently downplayed the idea that rate reductions are nearing.

11.12.2023 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

November jobs report to offer latest pivotal clue on whether U.S. economy is pulling off the near-miraculous 'soft landing'

The jobs report is expected to show that employers added a solid 172,500 jobs, according to a survey of economists, slightly exceeding October's...

08.12.2023 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Americans are pissed off about surviving a pandemic and paying for the privilege: 'They want these prices to be back where they were'

“Most Americans," says Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve Cook said, "are not just looking for disinflation. They’re looking for deflation."

19.11.2023 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Consumer inflation stayed flat in October thanks to cheaper gas, which slowed overall price increases

Lower gas prices helped cool overall inflation, which was unchanged from September to October, down from a surprise 0.4% jump the previous month.

14.11.2023 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve is still on pause when it comes to rate hikes—for now

The central bank left the door open to further rate hikes if inflation pressures should accelerate in the months ahead.

01.11.2023 5

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Blockbuster economic data from last few weeks has made Fed’s rate announcement today that much harder: ‘The Fed has to talk tough’

The Federal Reserve is set to leave interest rates unchanged for the second time, but a final rate hike isn't off the table.

01.11.2023 7

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Hot jobs market continues to challenge Fed's inflation fight as wages sped up their rise over the summer

Compared with a year ago, compensation growth slowed to 4.3% from 4.5% in the second quarter.

31.10.2023 7

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The top 10% of U.S. households are $28 trillion richer since 2020—and economists are slowly waking up to the spending revolution

“When wealth is growing by the amount that it has been the past three years ... I do think that it’s playing a larger role in this spending...

30.10.2023 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hasn’t changed in two months, indicating a long slog ahead for the economy

Stubborn inflation may lead the Fed to keep rates high through year's end.

27.10.2023 10

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

U.S. economy glows red hot with a 4.9% GDP reading for the third quarter

The report blew out expectations of a 3.8% annual pace, according to a survey of economists by FactSet.

26.10.2023 2

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Jerome Powell doesn't sound convinced on inflation: 'A few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take'

“We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist or where inflation will settle over coming quarters," the Fed chair said.

19.10.2023 2

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The typical U.S. household is coming off its biggest wealth boost in decades, fueled by low interest rates, Fed says

Between 2019 and 2022, the median household's wealth jumped 37% as asset prices surged and low interest rates made it easier to pay off debt.

18.10.2023 5

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation barely budged in September—but it's still a ways off from the Fed's magic 2% target

Prices increased 0.4% from August to September and were unchanged at 3.7% year-over-year, according to Labor Department data.

12.10.2023 7

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Fed may leave interest rates untouched at next meeting because surging bond yields are doing the bank’s work for it, two officials say

Philip Jefferson, vice chair of the Fed's board and a close ally of Chair Jerome Powell, said he would “remain cognizant” of the higher bond rates...

10.10.2023 2

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Economy roars with stronger than expected 336,000 jobs added in September

Friday's jobs report showed hiring jumped from a 227,000 increase in August, which was also revised higher. Unemployment was unchanged at 3.8%.

06.10.2023 6

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

The greatest threat to the Fed's 'soft landing' is actually the Fed. It's 'higher for longer' interest rates are driving up bond yields and cracking the economy

Piper Sandler's Benson Durham says the Fed is telling the market: "We’re all over it like a cheap suit, but we’re not sure what exactly we’re...

05.10.2023 3

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Jerome Powell gets an earful on the ground from small business owners, including the head of Sweet Mama’s Mambo Sauce

Jennifer Heasley, who owns a food stall in the York Central Market, had one message for the Fed chair: “Lower interest rates."

03.10.2023 4

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Inflation, still a ways off from the Fed's 2% target, is barely budging as one economist sees a 'golden path' developing

“The Fed,” Austan Goolsbee said, “has the chance to achieve something quite rare in the history of central banks — to defeat inflation without...

29.09.2023 6

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

How U.S. job market defied rising interest rates and predictions of high unemployment

Here are some reasons for the economy's unexpected resilience and a look at whether it might endure.

25.09.2023 30

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

Fed leaves interest rates unchanged in its inflation fight. But stay tuned for a possible increase later this year as oil prices soar

Leaving the benchmark rate at 5.4% suggests the Fed will wait and see if the 11 rate hikes it started in March 2022 will continue to cool rising...

20.09.2023 2

Fortune

Christopher Rugaber

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