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Christopher JoyeFinancial Review |
The US central bank’s belated acknowledgement of re-accelerating inflation and the risks flowing from Donald Trump’s policies could trigger a...
The Reserve Bank of Australia appears set to ease interest rates in a move that will support its political masters heading into a problematic poll.
Australia’s economic story has become dominated by public rather than private activity as politicians spend crazy amounts of money to buy votes.
The latest inflation readings imply that there is a possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia could start easing early in the new year.
Aussie bank stocks are the dearest in the developed world, according to Barrenjoey. It’s no wonder retail investors are heading for the exits.
Equity investors are slowly waking up to the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
Markets should keep a close eye on where yields land after Donald Trump or Kamla Harris claim victory on November 5, writes Christopher Joye.
Government spending crowding out private sector activity means that inflation and interest rates are likely to remain high.
Household leverage has declined in the US and Europe, but the lax approach of Australia’s central bank has fuelled a record increase in household...
Investors are puzzling over what to do with their hybrids following APRA’s proposal to phase out the sector.
Financial markets have entered a dangerous new economic environment defined by unusually elevated uncertainty after the US Federal Reserve’s pivot...
The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory...
Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders...
It is awfully hard beating inflation out of the system without a real recession. Most soft landings have ended up triggering even higher interest...
Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.
The haughty deputy governor of the Reserve Bank should focus on ensuring the central bank does not once again become a false prophet, writes...
The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global...
A hot inflation figure on Wednesday would show we are in the grip of a structurally persistent crisis which has been underestimated in three of the...
The “Sahm rule” suggests the US may be near a recession, and any sharp increase in unemployment will likely be met by aggressive Fed rate cuts.
Among the higher risk asset classes, global shares did very well, and gold even better. But the king of 2024 was bitcoin.
In a huge embarrassment for the central bank, its next move in interest rates should be higher, not lower, writes Christopher Joye.
Politicians spending more today just results in higher interest rates for all.
Financial markets might spit the dummy and unilaterally impose a much higher long-term cost of capital on everyone.
There is a rich array of opportunities available for investors searching for relatively safe and liquid yields.
The New Zealand central bank has given its Australian equivalent a dancing lesson in political independence.
Alleging neutrality while considering lifting rates seems contradictory.
Politicians are compromising central banks’ commitments to price stability targets, and the ensuing sticky inflation will require a much tougher...
The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely be forced to warn that it could raise rates again.
In total 1131 businesses went bust in the month, which was the largest number since ASIC started collecting these statistics in 1999, writes...
The spike in US inflation has caught equity and debt investors napping.
Investors in aggressively long equities, real estate, junk bonds and private debt have been fervently punting on the likelihood of deep rate cuts...
Central banks delayed rate increases after the pandemic on the basis they could not forecast the future, but now use rubbery projections to...
As myopic states take more and more from their most successful citizens, others aspire to attract the best and brightest in a quest for intellectual...
Investors are retreating from illiquid assets in favour of high-yielding bank bonds.
For all the back-slapping about the absence of a recession and assuredness around a soft landing, this cycle is not yet over.
Markets are once again being forced to defer the timing of the first interest rate cuts.
The key to investment success is focusing on optimising the present rather than big speculative bets.
A stubbornly high inflation measure could scupper hopes of early interest rate relief.
The latest US inflation data calls into question market expectations for heavy interest rate cuts this year.
Bond issuers’ nervousness about the acute macroeconomic and geopolitical risks has resulted in a flood of supply in the first week of 2024.
As we move into the new year, the bellwether markets of Melbourne and Sydney are falling.
Investors are ignoring geopolitical risks and have swallowed the “immaculate disinflation” thesis hook, line and sinker.
While markets are rejoicing about the prospect of lower interest rates next year, stagflation across the ditch points to very different possibilities.
With the advent of the $3.5 trillion in compulsory savings via superannuation, Australia has become a breeding ground for some of the best investment...
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