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Christopher Joye

Christopher Joye

Financial Review

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Bond markets punish imprudent politicians as debt spiral looms

While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis.

10.01.2025 8

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

The greenback was the trade of the year, the next one is up to Musk

Getting diversification across currencies was one of the best trades of 2024. But the year ahead is complicated by the advent of the new Trump...

27.12.2024 1

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Why the RBA will follow the Fed’s election playbook

The Reserve Bank of Australia appears set to ease interest rates in a move that will support its political masters heading into a problematic poll.

13.12.2024 3

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Public sector to blame for Australia’s poor productivity

Australia’s economic story has become dominated by public rather than private activity as politicians spend crazy amounts of money to buy votes.

06.12.2024 4

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Could the RBA cut interest rates in February?

The latest inflation readings imply that there is a possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia could start easing early in the new year.

29.11.2024 3

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Heed the alarming writing on the wall left by bond bandits

Equity investors are slowly waking up to the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House.

01.11.2024 4

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

US election will drive long-term Aussie interest rates

Markets should keep a close eye on where yields land after Donald Trump or Kamla Harris claim victory on November 5, writes Christopher Joye.

25.10.2024 1

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Hopes for a soft landing remain heroic

Government spending crowding out private sector activity means that inflation and interest rates are likely to remain high.

18.10.2024 3

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

RBA blowing financial stability bubble

Household leverage has declined in the US and Europe, but the lax approach of Australia’s central bank has fuelled a record increase in household...

11.10.2024 10

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Trading regulatory risk in the $40b hybrid sector

Investors are puzzling over what to do with their hybrids following APRA’s proposal to phase out the sector.

04.10.2024 2

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Rate cuts herald risky new regime

Financial markets have entered a dangerous new economic environment defined by unusually elevated uncertainty after the US Federal Reserve’s...

20.09.2024 1

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Why is APRA trying to blow up the hybrid market?

The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory...

13.09.2024 1

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Is private credit becoming the next subprime crisis?

Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders...

06.09.2024 3

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Beware the threat of reaccelerating inflation in 2025

It is awfully hard beating inflation out of the system without a real recession. Most soft landings have ended up triggering even higher interest...

30.08.2024 1

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Lower inflation could pressure RBA to cut rates

Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.

23.08.2024 2

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

Arrogant RBA boss should stop trying to muffle opponents

The haughty deputy governor of the Reserve Bank should focus on ensuring the central bank does not once again become a false prophet, writes...

16.08.2024 2

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot

The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global...

09.08.2024 7

Financial Review

Christopher Joye

If the RBA was doing its job, it would immediately lift rates

A hot inflation figure on Wednesday would show we are in the grip of a structurally persistent crisis which has been underestimated in three of the...

26.07.2024 7

Financial Review

Christopher Joye