Seven ways Wales is being hit by the conflict in the Middle East

“This is not something happening ‘over there’,” she says “It is connected to all of us."

The ongoing conflict has raised uncertainty across thw world (Image: Anadolu via Getty Images)

When people in Wales think about conflict in the Middle East, it can often feel distant something unfolding thousands of miles away, far removed from daily life. But according to Dr Hade Turkmen, interim head of Oxfam Cymru, that perception couldn’t be further from the truth.

“The idea that this is happening ‘over there’ is simply not accurate,” she says. “We are part of a global system and when there is a shock in one part of the world, it will inevitably affect us here in Wales.” Drawing on her research and experience, Dr Turkmen outlines the key ways global conflict can or likely will be felt across Wales.

Dr Hade Turkmen, current head of Oxfam Cymru

1. Rising energy prices and cost of living pressures

One of the most immediate impacts is on energy. Global conflicts, particularly in oil-producing regions, can drive up fuel prices worldwide. Even though the UK sources only a small percentage of its oil directly from affected areas, prices are set on a global market.

“Even if we don’t import large amounts directly, we don’t control the price,” Dr Turkmen says. “When global oil prices rise, they rise for everyone.” This has a knock-on effect across the economy from transport costs to household energy bills adding further pressure to the ongoing cost of living crisis.

2. Food supply and rising grocery costs

Energy is just one part of the picture. As fuel prices increase, so do the costs of transporting goods including food. Wales, like much of the UK, relies heavily on imported produce.

“Our food system is global,” Dr Turkmen explains. “When transport becomes more expensive, that cost is passed on. It affects what we see on supermarket shelves.” There are also indirect impacts. Fertiliser production, farming machinery, and supply chains all depend on energy, meaning agricultural costs rise too.

The result is higher food prices something that disproportionately affects lower-income households.

3. A global system Wales cannot escape

At the heart of these issues is a simple reality that Wales is deeply connected to the global economy. “We cannot isolate ourselves from global shocks,” Dr Turkmen says. “Whether it’s energy, food, or climate we are part of an interconnected system.” That means even if conflict feels geographically distant, its consequences are anything but.

4. The poorest communities feel it most

While these economic shifts affect everyone, they are not felt equally. “Inflation hits the poorest households hardest,” Dr Turkmen says. “In Wales, where poverty is already a significant issue, these global shocks deepen existing inequalities.

5. Migration and global displacement

Conflict also drives displacement, leading to increased migration. “When there is war, people are forced to leave their homes that’s inevitable,” Dr Turkmen explains. “And that has global consequences, including for countries like the UK.” She notes that while migration is often framed negatively in public discourse, it is a symptom of wider global instability not the cause of local challenges.

6. Climate and environmental consequences

Beyond the economic and social impacts, conflict also has environmental consequences something Dr Turkmen describes as often overlooked. She points out that climate impacts do not respect borders. “Climate change has no boundaries. What happens in one part of the world can contribute to extreme weather, flooding, and environmental challenges elsewhere including in Wales.”

7. The poorest communities feel it most

While these economic shifts affect everyone, they are not felt equally. “Inflation hits the poorest households hardest,” Dr Turkmen says. “In Wales, where poverty is already a significant issue, these global shocks deepen existing inequalities.

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Despite these challenges, Dr Turkmen believes Wales is not powerless. In her previous work with, she argues that Wales has both a responsibility and an opportunity to act. “Wales has a strong history of peace-building and international solidarity,” she says. “We should not be a silent spectator.”

She argues that building a more resilient local economy is key, with greater investment in local food production, businesses and community is helping to reduce reliance on global supply chains. Transitioning to green energy is also another priority.

Alongside this, she stresses that Wales should take a clear stance on human and environmental rights, acting as a voice for peace and justice. At its core, she emphasises a crucial message: global crises are not distant events, but interconnected realities that directly affect life in Wales.

For Dr Turkmen, the key message is simple. “This is not something happening ‘over there’,” she says “It is connected to all of us."

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