This time next year, Australia will more than likely be knee-deep in a federal election campaign. If things continue as they are, the major parties will go backwards.

Irresistible forces are preparing to strike moveable objects.

Artwork: Dionne Gain

The teals are targeting more Coalition seats while the Greens aim to slice further into Labor territory in Wills and Richmond, and against the Liberals in seats like Sturt.

Take the NSW seat of Bradfield, once the bluest of blue ribbon Liberal seats. In 2022, Paul Fletcher suffered a 15.28 per cent drop in his primary vote after a challenge from unknown independent Nicolette Boele. Fletcher held on with a two-party preferred vote a smidgen over 54 per cent.

Back then, the community independents movement didn’t think Boele stood a chance so failed to pour resources into the seat. They are not making that mistake again, assuming Bradfield still exists after the NSW electoral redistribution.

Boele has set herself up as the shadow member for Bradfield. In mid-March, a uComms poll for Climate 200, obtained by this columnist, shows Boele on 16.3 per cent while Fletcher’s primary vote was languishing around 36 per cent, almost 10 per cent below that of 2022. After preferences, and without the benefit of a full-on campaign, Boele wins with 53 per cent to Fletcher’s 47 per cent.

There are several regional seats vulnerable to the two-strike strategy where independent candidates made significant inroads in 2022 – Wannon, held by Liberals frontbencher and potential leadership aspirant Dan Tehan, Grey in South Australia where sitting........

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