Underlying the redistricting arms race that Texas Republicans kicked off this summer (and to which California Democrats are responding) are two wagers both parties are making about Latino voters.

Texas Republicans are expecting that Latinos will either continue the rightward shift they’ve been undergoing for the last two presidential cycles — or at least remain as Republican as they were in 2024. Democrats in California, meanwhile, are expecting that Latino voters will retain their allegiances and boost Democratic candidates in redrawn battleground districts around the state.

Who ends up being right — and which way the trend with Latino voters unfolds — may determine not just a handful of seats, but overall control of the House of Representatives after next year’s midterms.

These new political maps being drawn in both states might also teach America’s political parties a familiar lesson: Population changes don’t guarantee political outcomes, and political power shifts are never permanent. Latinos make up about a third of eligible voters in both states, and have been trending toward Republicans over the last few years, but there are plenty of signs this shift might slow down — or even reverse — in the future.

Texas is betting on a sustained Hispanic........

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