The longest government shutdown in modern American history is about to end, after a handful of Democratic senators this weekend decided to provide Republicans enough votes to pass a short-term funding plan that would keep the government running until the end of January 2027.

While there’s not much for Democrats to write home about in this deal, it’s also not clear that they could have ever really won the showdown — or any of the concessions they were originally making. Moreover, the deal doesn’t put the issue to bed so much as it kicks the can down the road for a few months — through January — before another vote to fund the government will be needed. That leaves a question: Will the country find itself facing another shutdown in just a few months’ time?

For answers, I turned to Matt Grossman, the director of the Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, as well as the host of the Science of Politics podcast at the Niskanen Center, where he’s a senior fellow. Grossman is an expert on Congress, policymaking, and partisan politics, and I found his perspective both clarifying and grounding. This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

The basics of the deal

• The short-term plan doesn’t extend Affordable Care Act tax credits that are set to expire at the end of 2025.
• It does include a promise from Republicans to vote in the next few weeks on a Democratic health care bill that would likely include an extension of these credits. It’s not clear this could become law, however.
• It provides full-year funding of military construction and veterans programs, congressional salaries and their offices, and SNAP and other assistance programs through the US Department of Agriculture.
• It temporarily extends funding for the rest of the government until January 30.
• It reverses shutdown-pegged layoffs of federal works (“reductions in force”) and ensures backpay for furloughed workers.

Was this shutdown appreciably or........

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