UNIONDALE, N.Y. — The sales pitch started on the walk over to the Nassau Coliseum, where men were hawking "Make America Great Again" hats. A giant digital sign above the arena flashed a picture of former President Donald Trump’s face.

As I got closer to the arena Wednesday, I stood in line with supporters amid a maze of lawn chairs and trash left by people who had been in line for hours prior. People saw folks they knew and made small talk. Supersized Trump flags waved in the breeze above more people selling Trump merchandise, in case you failed to bring your own. To my left was a large sign warning about the “mind virus” that is “fake news media.”

“We are going to rescue our Democrat-run states,” Trump told a lively audience later that night. “We are going to start by saving the great state of New York.”

It’s unlikely that Trump will win New York, a state that has gone blue in every election since Ronald Reagan. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump in his home state by 23 percentage........

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