Hours before his self-imposed deadline, and after warning that a “whole civilization” could be wiped out, President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, conditioned on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s threat to destroy a “whole civilization” was not a slip. It was a negotiation tactic – and, at least in the short term, it worked.

The immediate reaction was positive. Oil prices plunged, with U.S. crude dropping 18%, and stocks surged, suggesting clear market relief at the ceasefire.

The picture shifted quickly. Iran initially moved to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but closed it again after Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil, making it........

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