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A Cuban flag and an American flag fly together in front of a window at Remedios, Santa Clara, Cuba.

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be the country’s first Cuban American secretary of state. But don’t assume that we’ll see cozier relations between Havana and Washington.

Rubio, who if confirmed by the Senate would also be the first Latino to hold the post, is one of the most hawkish members of Congress on the communist-run island. A recent profile of Trump’s pick for top diplomat described Rubio as “Cuba’s worst nightmare.”

On the other hand, Trump plays against Republican stereotypes in foreign policy, and showed in his first term that he was willing to engage with America's traditional adversaries. So how will Rubio’s antipathy for the communist government in Cuba – alongside Trump’s desire to be seen as a dealmaker – affect U.S.-Cuban ties?

Ties between the two countries have been fraught for more than 60 years. After overthrowing U.S.-supported dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, Fidel Castro nationalized U.S.-owned property and became an ally of the Soviet Union. He also supported left-wing revolutions in Latin America and Africa, challenging U.S. global interests.

In response, successive U.S. presidents prohibited trade with Cuba and most travel to the island by U.S. citizens since the 1960s, and the CIA famously tried – and failed – many times in past decades to assassinate Castro, one of Washington’s stubbornest foes.

Elliott Davis Jr.Nov. 15, 2024

There was a brief thaw in relations during Barack Obama’s administration. But Trump reinstated the U.S.’s policy of confrontation with Cuba between 2016 to 2020 – a period marked by a tightened embargo on the island and increased rancor between Washington and Havana.

That may well happen again under Trump’s second administration – but that isn’t certain. There is also the potential for changes in U.S.-Cuban relations. Perhaps, even, there are reasons to believe the dynamic may........

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